Published on Tuesday, 17 January 2017 08:07
Written by RAZAFIMPAHANANA Dimby
This Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) methodological assessment of scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been carried out by experts from all regions of the world, who have performed an in-depth analysis of a large body of knowledge, including about 1500 scientific publications. It has been extensively peer reviewed. Its chapters and their executive summaries were accepted, by the fourth session of the Plenary of IPBES (22-28 February 2016, Kuala Lumpur).
Decision makers in Governments, private sector and civil society want more robust information regarding plausible futures of biodiversity and ecosystem services. They want to understand how the drivers impacting biodiversity and ecosystem services might evolve in the future, and what the consequences might be for biodiversity, ecosystem services and nature’s benefits to people. They also want to understand the implications of different policy choices on biodiversity and ecosystem services, and how to achieve policy targets, e.g., the Aichi targets.
To address the concerns of decision makers the IPBES scenarios and modelling assessment considered the roles of scenarios and models within the IPBES conceptual framework, and assessed the roles of three types of scenarios within the policy cycle, i.e., (i) “exploratory scenarios”, which represent different plausible futures, often based on storylines; (ii) “target-seeking scenarios”, also known as “normative scenarios”, which represent an agreed-upon future target and scenarios that provide alternative pathways for reaching this target; and (iii) “policy-screening scenarios”, also known as “ex-ante scenarios”, which represent various policy options under consideration.